Is+the+Lead+Meaningful?

//Is the Lead’s Meaningful?//

Remember that we are working with estimates. And estimates are NEVER 100% ACCURATE. However, by using solid statistical methods, poll takers can raise the confidence level and lower the margin of error. Read the following and then use them to determine just how accurate the numbers are. More importantly, use them to see if a 51% to 49% lead is really a lead at all. Perhaps it is just statistical noise.

Sensible Talk descriptions: http://www.robertniles.com/stats/margin.shtml

Find the //margin of error// and //confidence level// of your polls. Mention these in your analysis. Specify how these might change your predictions.